All politics is local

Below is my latest post on the Total Politics site. I understand the blogs there are to undergo a revamp so keep an eye on them.

Last week there was quite a detailed discussion in the school playground between parents on how accurate the America polls might be.

Who knew that the Bradley effect could become common currency rather than a psephological speciality?

We'll find out over the next 24 hours (providing there is no re-run of 2000). I’ve invited parents to drop in on the way to and from school on Wednesday morning to have a cookie or bagel and watch the fnial stages of the Presidential election.

Beyond the natural interest of this fascinating race should people in this little Wiltshire village really care?

Actually, it’s the primary school mums and dads who are most likely to be affected.

Half of the children at the village school are from service families. My daughter is used to making friends with children who stay for a year and then suddenly leave as their father is posted elsewhere.

And of course significant numbers have served or are serving in Iraq or Afghanistan.

Whichever of the candidates wins will have an impact on Britain’s role in those countries which will percolate down to our community.

One aspect of having so many service families is that it can play havoc with school budgets.

Every January there is a count of pupil numbers and based on that the school gets its funding. However, the MoD might move significant numbers of personnel around any time.

It could be good for the school if its numbers drop and so it has more funds per head. Or it could work the other way.

If you sign up for the forces then the unexpected is what, well, you expect. However it’s hardly an ideal way for a school to operate when its budget plans are subject to such an arbitrary snapshot.

Should we devise a different forumla for schools with a high proportion of service children?